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58,80 €ISBN 978-3-8440-9660-6Softcover162 pages31 figures219 g21 x 14,8 cmEnglishThesis
October 2024
Steffen Wehkamp
Simulation-based Validation of Valuation Methods for Power Plant Investments
As the world shifts towards a decentralized energy system with lower CO2 emissions, primarily powered by renewable sources, there is a pressing need to adapt financial valuation methods for the new requirements of renewable power plant technologies. This thesis addresses the gap in quantitative tools needed to evaluate the plausibility of these valuation methods, which have traditionally been assessed through empirical-qualitative studies.
Introducing a simulation-based benchmark, this research uses the Xerox method to develop a tool that verifies the realism of valuation methods by comparing their Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) with reference values from a simulation model. The study examines the Discounted-Cash-Flow (DCF) method and Real Option Analysis (ROA), providing the first quantitative evaluation of these methods applied to power plants. The findings highlight the dependency of valuation result quality on the proximity of marginal costs to the mean Market-Clearing-Price (MCP), offering new insights into the validity of existing criticisms and affirming the credibility of certain valuation approaches.
Introducing a simulation-based benchmark, this research uses the Xerox method to develop a tool that verifies the realism of valuation methods by comparing their Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) with reference values from a simulation model. The study examines the Discounted-Cash-Flow (DCF) method and Real Option Analysis (ROA), providing the first quantitative evaluation of these methods applied to power plants. The findings highlight the dependency of valuation result quality on the proximity of marginal costs to the mean Market-Clearing-Price (MCP), offering new insights into the validity of existing criticisms and affirming the credibility of certain valuation approaches.
Keywords: Power Plants; Valuation Methods; Discounted-Cash Flow; Real Option; Benchmark; Simulation
Oldenburger Schriften zur Wirtschaftsinformatik
Edited by Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jorge Marx Gómez, Oldenburg
Volume 38
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DOI 10.2370/9783844096606
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