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978-3-8440-2101-1
49,80 €
ISBN 978-3-8440-2101-1
Softcover
250 pages
115 figures
371 g
29,7 x 21 cm
German
Thesis
August 2013
Frank Gerrit Poggenpohl
Die quantitative Risikoanalyse als Mittel zur Optimierung industrieller Brandschutzkonzepte
The reduction of fire risks is one of the most relevant tasks for plant fire brigades. Here, fire prevention concepts are applied which are based on constructional, plant-specific factors as well as on protective fire control measures. The main intention is to provide a maximum level of security within a given framework of economic constraints. This field of tension constitutes the crucial driver for the plant fire brigade staff and leads to an on-going deliberation about the optimisation of processes and the improvement in efficiency. Applied in this context, this thesis seeks to formulate a modelling approach that describes the impacts of different configurations of fire control measures. This is implemented through calculation of risk measures, which are subsumed into risk profiles for different prospects: construction users, production plants, and the fire brigade staff.

This thesis develops a dynamic model based on a reference scenario which equates the constructional and organizational framework of the Merck KGaA in Darmstadt. The model displays the course of action starting from the fire alert and the arrival time of the fire brigade up to the point of entry into force of the extinguishing devices. The fire developments of two different fire loads typical of the chemical industry serve as the basis of this analysis. Anticipated model uncertainties are taken into account by the application of the Monte-Carlo method during the entire calculation.

The implementation of the model onto the defined reference scenario shows firstly that regarding the labour utilisation a reduction from 15 to ten fire fighters has neither a negative nor a positive impact on the level of the risk measures. Secondly, it reveals that with a water sprinkling system installed, the highest risk reduction can be achieved within the framework of the surveyed plantspecific fire control measures. Furthermore it is shown that the initial installation of a fire water supply by the fire brigade staff does not lead to an increase of the relevant risk measures.
Keywords: Risiko; Risikobewertung; Optimierung; Brandschutz; Abwehrender Brandschutz; Brandschutzbedarfsplanung; Risikoanalyse
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